Guosen Securities: Expect January LCD panel prices to rise YoY, fueled by old-for-new policy

    January 15, Guoxin Securities released a monthly report on the LCD industry, said that according to Omdia data, in November 2024 the global large-size LCD panel monthly revenue of 5.570 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 5.73% sequentially, an increase of 9.71% year-on-year, of which BOE, TCL Huaxing, Wyeco large-size LCD panel monthly revenue increased by 11.52% year-on-year growth of 11.19%, respectively, 5.11%.

    In 3Q2024, the average gross margin of China's major LCD makers (SZTEMA, TCL Technology, BOE, Rainbow, Dragon Optoelectronics, AUO, Qunar Optoelectronics, HANYU Color Crystal) declined by 0.77% year-on-year and 0.56% YoY to 14.91%, while the net profit margin improved by 0.15% year-on-year and declined by 0.69% YoY to 1.75%.

    Price: December 2024 65-inch LCD TV panel prices rose YoY, and is expected to increase the price of LCDTV panels of all sizes in January YoY.

    TV: December 2024 32, 43, 50, 55, 65-inch LCD TV panel prices for 36, 62, 101, 126, 173 U.S. dollars per piece, in addition to the 65-inch TV panel prices rose 0.6% from the ring in November, the size of the LCD TV panel prices than the November ring flat; Omdia expects January 32, 43, 50, 55, 65-inch LCD TV panel prices for January 32, 43, 50, 55, 65-inch LCD TV panel prices of 37, 63, 102, 128, 175 U.S. dollars per piece, an increase of 2.8% / 1.6% / 1.0% / 1.6% / 1.2% from the chain. According to TrendForce, the continuation of the domestic trade-in policy in January drove demand for TVs, while international brand customers are about to start stocking for the new year, and overall demand is expected to remain stable. Due to stronger-than-expected TV demand, panel plant capacity is likely to be adjusted during the Lunar New Year without annual repairs, and TV panel prices still have room to rise under stronger demand.

    Notebook: December 2024 10.1-inch (tablet), 14-inch (laptop), 23.8-inch (monitor) LCD IT panel prices 16.4, 26.2, 44.1 U.S. dollars, flat year-on-year; Omdia expects the January 10.1-inch, 14-inch, 23.8-inch LCD IT panel prices were 16.4, 26.2, 44.1 U.S. dollars per piece, flat year-on-year.

    On the supply & demand side, the global large-size LCD panel shipment area in November 2024 increased by 19.97% year-on-year, of which TV, Monitor, NoteBook, Tablet shipment area increased year-on-year.

    On the supply side, it is expected that the global large-size LCD capacity area in 2024 increased by 2.31% compared with 2023, of which 1Q24, 2Q24, 3Q24, 4Q24 capacity changed by +0.72%, +0.35%, +0.25%, -0.02%, respectively; it is expected that the global large-size LCD capacity area in 2025 increased by 0.21% compared with 2024, of which 1Q25, 2Q25, 3Q25, 4Q25 capacity changes of -0.02%, -0.02%, 0.00%, +0.16% respectively.

    On the demand side, the global large-size LCD panel shipment area in November 2024 increased by 19.97% year-on-year, of which the global LCD TV panel shipment area increased by 21.46% year-on-year, the global LCD monitor panel shipment area increased by 8.32% year-on-year, the global laptop panel shipment area increased by 23.43% year-on-year, and the global tablet PC panel shipment area increased by 23.51%.

    LCD industry production capacity gradually stabilized, along with overseas manufacturers production line shutdown and overseas manufacturers production line for sale, industry share is expected to be further concentrated, the supply side in the share of the advantages of concentration can be a better regulation of LCD TV panel prices, the industry cyclical attributes gradually faded, the growth attribute is revealed, LCD panel enterprise profitability stability is expected to be gradually strengthened.