How is the large-size LCD market faring?

Since the bottom of the cycle at the end of last year, panel prices across all sizes have risen comprehensively this year. However, starting from the third quarter, prices have once again fallen and are currently maintaining a relatively stable but still sluggish trend. The latest research data on global LCD TV panel shipments released by Sigmaintell shows that in terms of quantity, global LCD TV panel shipments in the third quarter of 2024 amounted to 59.53 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%.

In response, Zhao Jun, Senior Vice President of TCL Technology and CEO of TCL Huaxing, acknowledged in a recent interview with reporters that concerns about the overall downturn in the large-size LCD market were apparent earlier. However, he also noted that some positive changes are now being observed.

"Firstly, we can feel the government's efforts to boost the economy and stimulate consumption. The home appliance subsidy policy has indeed had a positive impact on consumers," said Zhao Jun. "Taking TV consumption as an example, overall demand has achieved a significant year-on-year increase since September. Against the backdrop of continuous declines in TV demand over the past two years, this growth is particularly valuable and has played a positive role in changing market supply and demand relationships. In addition, we notice that this time, the national subsidy is not equal for all products but has a clear policy orientation, especially with greater subsidies for energy-saving products and large-size, high-end products. This is a very good policy orientation for the development of the entire industry."

Secondly, from the supply side, display panel enterprises in the past two years, starting from the second half of 2022, due to pressure for survival and development, have changed their previous model of competing for market share through pricing, ensuring shipments, and maintaining high operating rates. Zhao Jun said, "We have instead dynamically adjusted our operating rates according to fluctuations in market demand to maintain an overall balanced and healthy supply and demand relationship. After one or two years of operation, panel enterprises have improved their ability to grasp fluctuations in market demand and responded more quickly to market changes. Therefore, our change on the supply side is to produce according to demand and dynamically maintain balanced market development."

"The interaction between supply and demand has led us to observe that the overall TV panel market is currently in a relatively balanced and healthy state, so we are optimistic about the future," Zhao Jun added.

As for large-size LCDs, Li Dongsheng, the founder and chairman of TCL, is also relatively optimistic. In a recent CCTV "Dialogue" program, Li Dongsheng said that the general view in the industry is that the next generation of display technology will replace LCD within a relatively short period. However, based on TCL's own development experience, no technology has yet been able to replace LCD in large-screen displays.

"In the foreseeable future, LCD will definitely be mainstream in large-screen displays, and with the support of new technological innovations such as Mini LED or other quantum dot technologies, the life cycle of LCD products will be longer, and their competitiveness will also be stronger," said Li Dongsheng.

Sigmaintell pointed out that driven by national subsidy policies, the forecasted panel shipment volume for September to the fourth quarter of this year has been increased by about 2.2 million units compared to previous estimates. Although the fourth quarter of this year enters the off-season for the global panel market, it is evident that China's national subsidy policies have acted as a stabilizer for the off-season effect.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of this year, analysts from Huatai Securities believe that considering the increased production control by leading panel manufacturers and the recovery in TV demand, large-size LCD panel prices are expected to stabilize and remain steady.