Panel Price Changes and Index Releases from 2015 to 2025

On December 4th, Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC), a market research firm, predicted that the prices of liquid crystal display (LCD) panels will remain at current levels until February 2024.

According to DSCC's latest forecast, the operating rate of liquid crystal thin-film transistor (TFT) factories in the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to be 77%, a decrease of 7% from the previous quarter. DSCC previously predicted that the operating rates of global LCD factories would be 77% in the first quarter of 2024, 86% in the second quarter, and 83% in the third quarter.

At the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2024, during the Chinese National Day holiday (October 1st), Chinese panel manufacturers shut down for 1 to 2 weeks. In the past, manufacturers would only shut down for 1 to 2 days during the National Day holiday, but this year, the shutdown was extended, mainly to adjust panel supply.

On the demand side, global TV shipments in the third quarter of 2023 increased by 11% compared to the previous year, with strong performances in North America and Western Europe.

LCD TV panel prices, which hit a historic low in September 2022, rose in the second and third quarters of 2023 but fell slightly in the fourth quarter.

DSCC expects LCD TV panel prices to remain stable in the fourth quarter. Since prices in September were below the third-quarter average, the average price for the fourth quarter is expected to be 2.1% lower than that of the third quarter. This price level is expected to continue until February 2025. Previously, the average price in the second quarter of 2023 increased by 5.5% compared to the first quarter, while the average price in the third quarter decreased by 2.8%.

In terms of price per panel area, DSCC stated that the price of 32-inch panels is the first to rise when supply is short and the first to fall when there is a surplus. The price of 32-inch panels rose in the first half of 2024 and then fell in the second half.

LCD TV Panel Prices from February 2023 to February 2025 (Source: DSCC)

Monthly Average Price Per Square Meter of LCD TV Panels from January 2020 to January 2025 (Source: DSCC)

In December 2023, the prices per square meter for 32-inch and 43-inch panels were $117and$118, respectively, representing historic lows. During the same period, the prices per square meter for other panel sizes were: $141for65-inch,$146 for 55-inch, $156for75-inch,and$157 for 49/50-inch.

Compared to 32-inch panels, the price premium per square meter for 65-inch panels was 21% in December 2023, fell to 14% by June 2024, and has stabilized around 19%. When there is a surplus of panels, the price of 32-inch panels falls first, thereby increasing the price premium.

When panel prices rose in mid-2023, the price per square meter for 49/50-inch panels performed strongly, while the price for 43-inch panels was the lowest. Compared to 43-inch panels, the price premium per square meter for 49/50-inch panels was 31% in January 2024, fell to between 28% and 29% between April and August, and dropped to 25% in September. DSCC expects this premium to stabilize around 25%.

The price difference between 43-inch and 49/50-inch panels is affected by the production efficiency of manufacturing factories. An 8.5th-generation factory can produce 8 pieces of 49/50-inch panels on each glass substrate, while a 10.5th-generation factory can produce 18 pieces of 43-inch panels, but with lower productivity when producing 49/50-inch panels.

In November 2024, the LCD TV panel price index is expected to be the same as the same period last year, while in December, it is expected to increase by 3% compared to the same period last year. By November, the LCD TV panel price index had remained within the range of 41.8 to 45.6 for 16 months. DSCC stated that this price trend is extremely stable historically and is expected to continue at least until February 2025.

LCD TV Panel Price Index from January 2015 to February 2025 (Source: DSCC)

Previously, the LCD TV panel price index hit a historic low of 30.5 in September 2022. The prices of LCD TV panels experienced a rapid increase for more than a year starting from June 2020, but began to fall sharply in the second half of 2021 and continued to decline for over a year.

The LCD TV panel price index rose to 44.8 in September 2023, an increase of 47% compared to the historic low of 30.5 in September 2022. This index fell back to 41.8 in December 2023 and is expected to rise slightly to 45.6 in May or June 2024, before falling again to 43.1 in September.

The decline in LCD TV panel prices in the third quarter of 2023 led to a deterioration in the profitability of global display panel manufacturers. Except for Samsung Display, the combined operating profit margin of other panel manufacturers was only 1%, with BOE even reporting a negative profit margin.