About 2025 TV Panel Supply Chain Landscape Trend Analysis

    After entering the fourth quarter, TV panel factory and brand factory about 2025 planning and and the direction of cooperation is roughly determined, in accordance with the usual practice, today's article will be the first to sort out the trend of the TV panel supply side pattern in 2025.

    2024 TV market is full of opportunities and challenges, a lot of events happened unexpectedly. The Spring Festival panel makers significantly control production to disrupt the pace of stocking; Red Sea crisis escalation to stimulate TV brands to prepare for stocking in advance; Japan, China and Taiwan earthquake led to the material factory and panel factory capacity damage; SDP suddenly announced the August shutdown; CSOT acquisition of the LGD Guangzhou plant, the Chinese mainland to start a large-scale trade-in subsidy policy, the story is staged in turn, picking up the heart of the people in the display industry.

    The global TV market demand in 2025 is still full of uncertainty, first of all, the lack of major events to pull, at the same time, the economy is slow to recover, the market is still adjusting to the trough, so the panel makers of next year's market planning are relatively cautious. With the closure of SDP, LGD Guangzhou LCD plant was acquired by CSOT, the head of the TV brand Samsung for supply chain security considerations, next year will be a certain degree of restoration of the amount of cooperation with BOE / HKC; other head of the TV brand and the panel makers of the relationship between the panel makers tends to be more stable, TV brands more based on the panel makers provide price support to dynamically adjust the panel cooperation relationship.



    BOE: In the past 2 years, BOE's TV panel shipment scale has shrunk compared to the peak of 22 years, and continues to be lower than the scale of 60M per year, firstly, because of the capacity shifting to large-size, and secondly, because of the shrinkage of the cooperation volume of Samsung/TPV, the main customers this year. According to AVC Revo (AVC Revo) “AVC-Revo - Global TV panel production, sales and inventory monthly report”, this year's BOE TV panel shipments are expected to be about 58M, compared with last year's growth, mainly due to the second half of the “national subsidy” policy stimulus, the Chinese brand Hisense/Skyworth/Changhong and other customers to actively increase the second half of the procurement plan. The second half of the procurement plan. 2025 BOE shipment plan 60M, compared with this year, want to continue to expand the share, to keep the world's first position. To this end, on the one hand, BOE to expand production line capacity, B19 plans to expand production to 210K large plate, other TV production line is also discussing the possibility of expansion. On the other hand, BOE maintains LGE / Hisense / Skyworth and other important customers contract orders; next year, the relationship with Samsung is expected to improve, the amount of cooperation from this year's 900K is expected to grow to next year's 2M or so, while further expanding the amount of cooperation with Changhong / KTC / MTC and other foundry customers. In terms of products, B10 has already mass-produced 40 inches, B17 has also mass-produced MMG 40+60 inches, and B10 110 inches is also in the process of starting production.

    CSOT (Huaxing): this year, CSOT TV panel scale stable at about 47M, and Samsung cooperation volume contraction, the group customer TCL procurement volume is stable, due to millet to self-procurement order increase, jumped to the 4th largest customer, at the same time, factory customers, colorful communications / MTC / KTC, etc. order increase. after the acquisition of LGD Guangzhou plant, is expected to be the beginning of the second quarter of 2025. After the acquisition of LGD Guangzhou plant, it is expected to be taken over by CSOT in early Q2 of 2025, CSOT is facing both opportunities and challenges, with rapidly expanding production capacity, but still with excess capacity.CSOT strives to maintain the customer structure of the existing LGD Guangzhou plant in 2025 for a smooth transition, but will need group customers such as TCL/moka to help digest the production capacity in the later stage.CSOT has a plan of 56M TV panels to be shipped in 2025, of which the acquired LGD Guangzhou plant is planned to ship 56M panels, with the acquired LGD Guangzhou plant shipping 56M panels. LGD Guangzhou factory shipment plan about 6M. Size 65/75/85/98 inch shipments to further expand. 115 inch customer base to expand, in addition to TCL, Changhong, next year Samsung/Sony and other customers are expected to import.

    HKC (Huike): this year's overall TV panel shipments are expected to 36.2M, compared with last year's slight decline, HKC pursuit of overall profitability improvement, weakening the performance of the shipment tender assessment. Pay more attention to the growth of the shipping area, actively expanding the oversized panel shipments, downsizing 32/43-inch products. Customer side of the first half of this year, the head of the customer Samsung to reduce orders, Konka / KTC / TPV customers shrink, but LGE / Hisense / TCL share to improve. The second half of this year HKC and Samsung relationship gradually improve, the whole year to Samsung's overall shipments are expected to 3.7M, next year there is a chance to increase to 5.5M. 2025 HKC TV panel shipment plan 36.2M, the same as this year, 65/75/85/100-inch shipment planning to continue to increase, in addition to the 116-inch product is expected to be sent to the November sample is expected to mass production in the first quarter of next year. Samsung hopes to produce 98 inches tied to the supply of 100-inch panels.

    INX (QunChuang): 2024 INX shipments of 36.9M, due to their own production capacity is difficult to grow, the overall size of the stable, Samsung, Hisense customer orders increased, but TCL / Skyworth / Changhong and other customers to reduce cooperation. With the rise in TV panel prices this year, INX from the second quarter of this year, losses improved, in addition to INX through the sale of the 5.5 generation LCD plant to supplement funds, further plant sale plan is also still in negotiations, in addition to Qunar actively planning panel level fan-out type packaging, shrinking the panel business intent is obvious. 2025 INX plans to ship 37.2M, the overall scale is flat.

    Sharp (Sharp): Sharp's overall shipments of 16M this year, Japan's Sakai G10 in August to stop glass casting, its inventory continues to ship until the end of the year. Guangzhou G10.5 plant expansion to 134K this year, increasing 65/75TV panel shipments, followed by planning 55/100 inch panel, further enriching the product line. Samsung's purchase orders increased, Hisense / MTC customers are affected by the withdrawal of Sakai G10 production line, panel shipments decreased. Next year Sharp plans 13M, but Sharp needs to accelerate the expansion of the product mix in order to bind a deeper relationship with customers.

    AUO (AUO): long-term planning, AUO strategic shift to reduce dependence on panel business, expanding the automotive display, intelligent display solutions business, focusing on planning the research and development of Micro LED. This year's TV panel shipments are expected to be 16.4M, an increase of 11% year-on-year, this year mainly to increase the amount of cooperation with Samsung/Sony/TPV. Next year's plan is 16-17M, plans to transfer part of the low-end MNT capacity to do TV panel.

    CHOT (Rainbow): shrinking small size shipments, transferred to large size, 55/100 inch production shipments this year, with Hisense / TPV customers to reduce the amount of cooperation, but Samsung / KTC cooperation to expand. CHOT later also in the planning of the 65-inch products, to further expand the product line. TV panel shipments this year is expected to 13.6M, 2025 shipment plan 15M.

    LGD: LCD + OLED TV panel shipments this year is planned for 19M, an increase of 43.9% year-on-year, by Samsung, LGE and KTC and other customers order growth, LGD LCD shipments increased significantly. LGD is expected to complete the delivery of the LCD plant in Guangzhou at the end of March next year, South Korea's P8 plant is expected to stop the production of a few LCD TV panels, Q1 next year to continue to supply LCD panels for Samsung and LGE. OLED TV shipments next year is planned for 6.2M.

    Since this year, in the old for new policy driven by China's TV brands to actively stock up, panel prices stabilized, the second half of the panel factory upward shipment plan to meet the demand for TV brand stocking. However, the current market is concerned about the “national subsidy” policy in advance of the Chinese market overdraft TV demand, next year, the retail market may perform poorly, in view of this, panel makers may take measures to control production again.

    In 2025, the supply side in addition to SDP G10 exit, CSOT T9 phase 2 continues to expand production, TM19 production line is in the climbing stage, does not rule out the possibility of entering the TV panel, high-generation LCD production line capacity continues to expand. Although the process of large size continues, but the overall demand for TV panels is expected to be the same as this year, the overall capacity is still in excess, next year, production control is still the main theme.

     In the past two years, thanks to the dynamic control of the panel factory on the crop rate, adjust the panel supply and demand, panel prices fluctuate in the direction of predictable. 2025 with the further increase in the degree of concentration, the head of a few panel factory production control caused by the impact will be more significant. At the same time to BOE as the first panel factory factory depreciation gradually expires, panel production costs are expected to be adjusted downward, the panel factory business strategy more flexible. 2025 panel factory is still profitability as the main goal, continue to take the flexible production control strategy, the expected panel factory business conditions are expected to continue to improve.